Chevron Crude Oil Price Dashboard – Key Insights (2023–2025)

Overall Price Performance

1. Sum of Change (ΔPY): +4.32 (Year-over-Year increase of +132.44% from previous period)
2. Sum of Percent Change: –17.49% (significant YoY decline)
3. Avg of Change (ΔPY): –1.11 (average monthly change of –23.84%) → Mixed signals: strong cumulative gain in absolute price change, but sharp percentage declines suggest high volatility and a downward trend in recent momentum.

Monthly Price Levels (Min of Price by Month)

1. Highest: May – 14.30
2. Lowest: March – 10.42
3. Year-end trend: Prices declined toward December (12.05), with a notable drop in November (11.22) → Seasonal pattern with spring/early summer peak, followed by gradual softening through year-end.

Max Change, Percent Change, and Price by Month

1. Largest positive price changes: Early months (January–May)
2. Sharpest declines: Late year (October–December)
3. Percent changes highly volatile, peaking positively mid-year but turning deeply negative in Q4

Average Change and Percent Change by Month

1. Strongest positive average changes: March–May (~1.1–2.3)
2. Deepest negatives: November (–2.9), October (–2.1), December (–1.6) → Consistent pattern of Q2 strength and Q4 weakness in both absolute and percentage terms.

Key Takeaways

1. High Volatility: Extreme swings in both absolute (+132% cumulative) and percentage (–17.49%) changes indicate a turbulent market influenced by geopolitical events, demand shifts, or supply disruptions.
2. Seasonal Cycle: Prices typically peak in spring/early summer (May high of 14.30) and weaken significantly in late fall/winter – classic pattern tied to driving season, refinery maintenance, and heating oil demand transitions.
3. Downward Momentum in Late Year: Q4 consistently shows the largest negative changes, suggesting structural oversupply, weakening demand, or inventory builds at year-end.
4. Mixed Recovery Signals: While cumulative change is positive, average monthly performance is negative – implying short-term rallies within an overall softening trend.

Recommendations

1. Hedging Strategy: Lock in forward sales during Q2 peaks to protect against predictable Q4 declines.
2. Inventory Management: Build strategic reserves in low-price late-year periods and draw down during high-price spring/summer.
3. Monitor Macro Drivers: Track OPEC+ decisions, geopolitical risks, and global demand (especially China/Asia) as primary volatility sources.
4. Scenario Planning: Prepare for continued high swings – stress-test operations for both $10 and $15+ price scenarios.

Overall: Crude oil prices exhibit strong seasonal behavior with spring highs and winter lows, overlaid on a volatile multi-year trend showing absolute gains but recent percentage weakness – vigilance on Q4 softening and macro risks remains essential.